IPL playoffs: How can RCB make it to the top four? What about CSK?

With only ten matches left in the league stage of IPL 2024, only Kolkata Knight Riders are guaranteed qualification, while two teams – Mumbai Indians and Punjab Kings – have been eliminated. Here are the playoff odds for the remaining sides.

Chennai Super Kings

Played: 12, Scored: 12, NRR: 0.491
Remaining matches: RR (h), RCB (a)

Four losses in their last six games left CSK with a lot to do to secure a top-four finish. However, wins in their remaining two games will almost certainly ensure qualification as their net run rate is still a healthy 0.491 despite a 35-run loss to Gujarat Titans. That’s a significant cushion over Delhi Capitals’ -0.316, who can also reach 16 if they win their last two.

The Super Kings will have to contend with a quick turnaround as they face Rajasthan Royals in their next one-dayer at home on Sunday after playing in Ahmedabad on Friday. If they lose this one, they could lose as RR, Kolkata Knight Riders, Sunrisers Hyderabad and one of Delhi Capitals or Lucknow Super Giants could all finish on 16 or more points.

If they finish at 14, their best bet would be SRH and DC lose their remaining games and LSG lose to Mumbai Indians to stay at 14. Then, their highest net run rate ensures CSK finish third, ahead of two other teams. 14.

Titans of Gujarat

Played: 12, Points: 10, NRR: -1.063
Remaining matches: KKR (h), SRH (a)

Even with two points with CSK, qualification is extremely difficult for GT due to their appalling net rate of -1.063. Their best case scenario would be a 14-point finish and a three-team tie for the bottom two spots. Going by the current net rate, GT’s best chance would be if those three teams were SRH (who are already at 14), DC and LSG. GT would still need a huge win to finish above at least two of those teams.

Kolkata Knight Riders

Played: 12, Points: 18, NRR: 1.428
Remaining carpet: GT (a), RR (a)

With 18 points already in the bag and two matches to go, KKR have qualified for the play-offs and almost made it to the top two. For them to miss the top two, they will have to lose by a really big margin and SRH will need two big wins as well. For example, if KKR lose their last two by a combined margin of 100 runs, SRH will have to win their remaining two games by a combined margin of 137 runs (assuming a first innings total of 200 in the game).

Rajasthan Royals

Played: 11, Points: 16, NRR: 0.476
Remaining matches: CSK (a), PBKS (h), KKR (h)

RR need one win to be confident of qualification. Even if they lose all three, they will only lose if their net run rate falls below that of the winner of the DC-LSG clash, assuming the winner ends on 16. Like KKR, there will be top two instead of RR. Finish after dominating the points table for most of the season.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

Played: 12, Points: 14, NRR: 0.406
Remaining matches: GT (h), PBKS (h)

Their stunning win over LSG lifted SRH to 14 points at a value of 0.406, giving them an excellent chance of not only qualifying, but finishing in the top two (although they’ll need the help of other results. That). Even one more win would put them in a good position to make the playoffs. They also have a good schedule, playing their last two games at home against teams currently in the top three.

Lucknow Super Giants

Played: 12, Points: 12, NRR: -0.769
Remaining matches: DC (a), MI (a)

The clash against SRH has had quite a negative impact on LSG’s net run rate, and this could see them lose their top-four finish. Even with 16 points, they can topple RR, KKR, SRH and CSK who will finish above them. Even if they beat DC but lose to Mumbai, they will struggle to qualify as the other opposition teams – SRH, DC, CSK and RCB – all have better run rates.

Capitals of Delhi

Played: 12, Points: 12, NRR: -0.316
Remaining matches: RCB (a), LSG (h)

CSK’s defeat to GT is good news for the Capitals but they can still miss out even by 16 points if CSK win their last two and if the top three teams make it past the 16th.

However, if DC beat RCB but lose to LSG, they can still finish in the top four with 14 points, if LSG lose to Mumbai and if none of the other teams currently below 14 reach that mark. Then, the battle for fourth place could be a direct showdown between DC and LSG.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru

Played: 12, Scored: 10, NRR: 0.217
Remaining matches: DC (h), CSK (h)

RCB completed a late charge with four wins, but even six in a row may not be enough as at least four teams can finish with 16 or more points. However, given their relatively healthy net run rate, they could even finish third with the following combination of outcomes: SRH and CSK lose both their matches and LSG win no more than one. Then RCB will have a good chance to surpass SRH in net runs and they will also stay ahead of DC and LSG.

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