Excitement is building as Bolton look to return to the Championship for the first time since 2019 and end a season of high drama and plenty of goals by lifting the play-off trophy.
Oxford United has an end to its story. It’s only been 14 years since they’ve played National League football and after eight long seasons in the division, this could be their best opportunity to get promoted to the second tier – a level they haven’t held since 1999.
Wanderers have dominated in their previous two games this season, held out for a goalless draw in November before putting on a masterclass in front of the TV cameras in March with a 5-0 win on the Toughsheet.
Past results count for nothing in the playoff finals, but we’ve looked at projected lineups, previous meetings and season stats to determine where seven key battles on the field or in the dugout could take place.
Nathan Baxter – Jamie Cummings
Both Chelsea graduates – neither man wants a busy game, but both should be ready to step into the limelight if a fierce penalty shoot-out is called for.
Baxter’s record on the ground is pretty good, according to data provided by Transfermrkt.com. Counting games from the National League and above, he saved nine of 31 penalties (29 percent).
Cummings has played fewer games, but of the 26 penalties he has faced, he has stopped three of them (11.5 per cent) – two in MK Dons colours, one at Gillingham.
The Oxford stopper will be keen to avoid the kind of mistake that gifted Josh Dacres-Cogle his second goal in March’s 5-0 defeat at Taufscheid and rekindle the form that helped Peterborough stay in the latter stages. in their playoff semifinals.
The defeat at home to Barnsley was Baxter’s first since returning from injury and has kept 17 clean sheets this season, one against Oxford at the Cassam Stadium in November – coincidentally, the only goalless draw he has featured in as a Bolton man. player.
Gethin Jones v Josh Murphy
Murphy’s pace is one of Oxford’s most obvious threats and the former Cardiff City man will probably be looking forward to testing himself in the open spaces of Wembley.
Jones has plenty of experience and won’t mind testing Murphy in other ways if Bolton have the ball.
Des Buckingham used a back three and Kyle Edwards on the left wing in the first meeting between the two sides this season, with Murphy playing a more central role when he came off the bench.
But if the U’s stick to the 4-2-3-1 that has served them well of late, Jones will have to be on his toes to make sure Murphy doesn’t get any encouragement.
For the Bolton vice-captain is the fact that he has performed well in both meetings with Oxford this season.
Ricardo Santos v Mark Harris
The Bolton captain will need no reminding of his second-half error against Barnsley, which set the Collywoods on a fairly comfortable night. His Emperor put Santos at his best in the first game and while there were some concerns over the calf injury that has plagued him for the past few months, he remains the key man at the back.
Harris has anchored Oxford’s attack well this season and is now one away from joining Dion Charles at the magical 20-goal mark. He is also in good form, scoring six times in his last six games.
His record in two starts against Bolton has been poor, though, with no shots on goal and just four touches in the box.
After watching Sam Cosgrove play for Barnsley in two semi-final games, Harris may feel he could get some change from Santos and Co when it matters most.
Josh Sheehan vs. Ruben Rodriguez
In what could be re-titled the “Battle of the Roughest Players in Major League Soccer” – Rodriguez won that particular contest 85 of 101 in the regular season.
Sheehan was hugely important for Bolton, stringing together endless passages of possession and often producing the killer pass. His vision to pick out the darting runs of Dion Charles or unleash the pace of wide men Josh Decres-Cogle or Randall Williams was often the difference.
The Welshman was man of the park in the 5-0 home win in March, setting up one for George Thomason and then scoring himself.
Like Sheehan, Rodriguez has been targeted by rivals since signing from Notts County. The former Den Bosch man plays more forward as a number 10, and boasts a slightly more direct goal record than Sheehan, with nine to his name so far.
PARIS MAGHOMA v Cameron Branagan
Magoma’s season deserves a grandstand finish in the capital, and with brief spells in the semi-finals, Barnsley simply didn’t know how to handle him. Filling the gaps is now the next challenge for the Brentford midfielder as his career matures.
If Sheehan keeps the rhythm and George Thomason the distorted base in Bolton’s midfield, Magoma often provides the sparkling riffs – those little moments that can turn spells of possession into powerful attacks.
Branagan has long been Oxford’s main man. Not only a master at set-pieces and penalties, his experience in front of the back four was also important as a screen against the penetrating runs that Magoma is capable of. He has 10 assists and will surely be at the heart of any positive result the U’s do today.
Randell Williams v Finley Stevens
Williams hit a timely purple patch for Wanderers a few months after the scores and his attacking performance against Barnsley was first in both games.
Efron Mason-Clarke is a unique challenge at this level of football, but it was noticeable that the Peterborough winger caused Oxford big problems on the same side of the pitch, prompting Stevens to be brought off at half-time after picking up a yellow card. His replacement, Sam Long, did a very decent job and could be in the final. But in this form, Williams will have a chance to make life difficult for any man again.
IAN EVATT v DES BUCKINGHAM
Both coaches deviated from their usual style of play to get the job done in the playoff semifinals.
Bolton kept things simple in the first leg at Barnsley, going direct and avoiding their usual tendency to build patiently, especially in the first 20 minutes of the game.
Evatt was disappointed to see his side stray from their game plan in the second half – but hopefully it will be a lesson if the same situation plays out at Wembley.
Buckingham handled Peterborough’s attacking threats admirably in the first leg and then, like Evett, had to compromise his own desire to play attacking football with a much more defensive approach at London Road. Some have suggested that a ‘detain and frustrate’ policy could be used against Wanderers, based on quick counters from Murphy, Rodriguez and Co for goals.
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